Context
Julie Newton opened the seminar by contextualising Southeast Europe’s pivotal role in Russia’s broader confrontation with the West. She described the region as a "grey zone" in European security—a strategic area where external interventions by Russia and the West remain likely. This zone is crucial for Russia, as it seeks to weaken Western cohesion while maintaining influence through populist and illiberal allies in countries like Serbia and Hungary. At the same time, Southeast Europe presents challenges for the West, given its vulnerabilities in governance and susceptibility to societal frustration, which can fuel populism and external manipulation.
Newton identified Russia’s medium-term goals, including neutralising threats from Ukraine, reshaping European security to counter NATO, and shifting the global balance of power away from Western dominance toward a Russia-China-led alternative. Southeast Europe, she argued, will continue to serve as a key battleground in this broader geopolitical conflict.
Maxim Samorukov expanded on Russia's strategic interests in the Balkans, noting that pre-war dependencies on Russia, such as those in Bulgaria, have shifted significantly since 2022. The war has amplified Russia’s focus on the Balkans as a critical theatre for disrupting Western cohesion, particularly through its alliance with Serbia.
Samorukov highlighted Serbia’s complex balancing act: maintaining economic ties with the EU while leveraging its relationships with Russia and China to assert autonomy. He observed that Serbia benefits from affordable Russian energy and political legitimacy with minimal cost in return. However, the war has complicated Serbia’s position, increasing its reliance on the West for military cooperation and subtly influencing its diplomatic stance.
Post-2022 transformations
Kyril Drezov examined the significant transformations in Southeast Europe since 2022. Drawing parallels to Russia’s isolation during the 1917–1933 period, he noted the deep mistrust and international exclusion Russia faces today. In the energy domain, Drezov highlighted the weakening of Russia’s networks in the region, aside from TurkStream, leaving countries like Romania in precarious positions.
He also discussed the demographic shifts triggered by the war, particularly the migration of Ukrainians to countries like Bulgaria, which has created cultural and logistical challenges. Meanwhile, Turkey has emerged as a critical player in the region, expanding its political and economic influence post-2022.
Geopolitical dynamics and soft power
Vuk Vuksanovic explored the sustainability of alliances in Southeast Europe, noting that these depend on the balance of power and the elites in control. He emphasised Russia’s ability to use Serbia as a bargaining tool against the West, leveraging disputes over Kosovo and energy supplies to maintain influence.
Vuksanovic argued that Russia’s soft power in the Balkans is less about tangible economic or military clout and more about its symbolic appeal as an alternative to Western dominance. While its capacity to supply advanced weaponry has diminished, Russia’s normative challenge to Western values continues to resonate with segments of the region’s population.
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Populism in Southeast Europe: Julie Newton linked the rise of populism to economic corruption, weak governance, and limited civil society engagement. She noted that these issues, exacerbated by energy crises tied to Russia, create fertile ground for populist narratives.
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A Trump Presidency's Potential Impact: Panellists speculated that a Trump return to the U.S. presidency could exacerbate divisions within the Western alliance, particularly between countries like France and Germany. Such a scenario might encourage Southeast European countries to hedge their bets between the U.S., China, and Russia, complicating regional stability.
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Russian Immigration to Serbia: While the influx of Russian migrants has influenced local economies, such as rising real estate prices in Belgrade, their political impact remains limited due to their relative isolation.
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The EU’s Role in Southeast Europe: Panellists offered mixed reactions to the EU’s engagement with the region. While the EU has reconsidered its approach since the war, its actions often seem reactive rather than strategic, leaving Southeast Europe vulnerable to external influence.
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The War’s Regional Implications: On the potential end of the war, the panellists agreed that a negotiated settlement would not resolve the underlying tensions, as Ukraine’s NATO aspirations remain contentious. They emphasised the growing geopolitical importance of Southeast Europe, especially as global powers like China and India seek to expand their influence in the region.
The seminar provided a comprehensive analysis of Southeast Europe’s evolving role amid Russia’s war against Ukraine. The region’s geopolitical complexities, shaped by historical grievances, energy dependencies, and global power dynamics, make it a critical battleground in the ongoing conflict. While challenges persist, the discussion underscored the need for cohesive strategies that align the interests of local actors and international powers. As the war continues to reshape the global political landscape, Southeast Europe’s significance will only grow, demanding nuanced approaches to stability and cooperation.
by Yangyang Zhao (ESC Reseach Assistant)
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