Monday, 11 November 2024

Rethinking Europe’s East-West divide: Who will lead the EU?

On November 5, the European Studies Centre (ESC) hosted a seminar discussing how Europe’s East-West divide has shaped the power dynamics within the EU, focusing on the representation and influence of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. The panel featured Zselyke Csaky (Centre for European Reform), Hussein Kassim (University of Warwick), Mihail Chiru (University of Oxford), and Krisi Raik (International Centre for Defence and Security). The session, chaired by Eli Gateva (Oxford DPIR), examined CEE representation within EU institutions, their influence in shaping EU policy, and the challenges they face in advancing their agendas.

Representation gaps in EU leadership
Zselyke Csaky began the seminar by highlighting the persistent underrepresentation of CEE countries in EU leadership. Despite accounting for 40% of EU member states and 23% of the population, CEE nationals held only 6% of top EU leadership roles in 2024, with no CEE citizens appointed to senior positions in 2023. Csaky pointed out that while Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has spotlighted the strategic importance of CEE countries, representation remains skewed in favor of older member states, particularly in influential positions.

Csaky noted that established networks within EU institutions often hinder CEE countries' integration. While the European Commission has a relatively balanced setup, influential positions still disproportionately go to nationals of older member states. Hungary remains an exception, wielding symbolic influence through Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, whose controversial policies have amplified Hungary’s visibility but may ultimately undermine broader CEE interests. Poland, despite its size and potential for regional leadership, faces limitations due to political instability and challenges in coalition-building.Historical trends and progress in the European Commission
Hussein Kassim delved into the historical evolution of CEE representation in the European Commission. Using data from official reports, he highlighted improvements in the distribution of key roles under the von der Leyen Commission, where CEE nationals were assigned portfolios such as Foreign Affairs, Trade, and Enlargement. If approved by the European Parliament, Maroš Šefčovič is set to become the longest-serving Commissioner in EU history by 2027.

However, significant disparities remain. As of 2024, Poland and Czechia are underrepresented at senior levels and in middle management. Earlier reports from 2011 and 2018 also indicated that CEE nationals were concentrated in junior grades, with slower progression to leadership roles. Kassim emphasized that these trends highlight a persistent gap in representation and influence, despite targeted recruitment efforts following the 2004 and 2007 enlargements.

The Commission has implemented measures to address these disparities, often in collaboration with member states. While some progress is evident, Kassim cautioned that cross-national variation within CEE countries underscores the need for a more tailored approach rather than treating the region as a homogeneous bloc.

CEE representation in the European Parliament
Mihail Chiru built on this discussion by examining the European Parliament (EP), where representation gaps are slowly narrowing. In the 2024 session, CEE MEPs hold five committee chair positions—the highest number to date. These roles are significant as they allow MEPs to influence legislative agendas, engage in trilogues, and resolve inter-committee conflicts.

Despite these gains, structural challenges persist. CEE MEPs remain underrepresented in the most influential political groups—EPP, S&D, Renew, and Greens—and often receive shorter, less impactful report assignments as rapporteurs. While the disparity in report allocation has narrowed since earlier EP sessions, Western European MEPs still dominate major policy files.

Chiru also highlighted the importance of committee group coordinators, who allocate reports and foster consensus within European Party Groups. While the share of CEE coordinators has grown since 2014, their influence is often diluted by political group dynamics, limiting their ability to shape policy outcomes. Chiru concluded that while representation is improving, structural factors continue to disadvantage CEE MEPs, and intra-regional disparities warrant greater attention.

CEE influence in EU foreign and security policy
Krisi Raik shifted the focus to foreign and security policy, emphasizing that CEE countries are not a monolithic group. The Baltic states and Poland, for instance, have aligned closely on foreign policy matters, particularly in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Their proactive approach has increased their visibility, influencing EU sanctions against Russia and military aid to Ukraine.

Raik pointed out, however, that sustaining this influence may prove challenging as the conflict stabilizes. While the Baltics have successfully integrated certain policies, such as visa restrictions on Russian nationals and limitations on oil exports, broader influence requires coalitions with larger states like Germany and France. Estonia, for example, has leveraged its digital expertise and strategic partnerships to advance its defense initiatives within the EU. Still, Raik cautioned that coalition-building remains critical for smaller states to translate representation into substantive influence.

She also addressed the EU’s broader defense challenges, highlighting the importance of enhancing defense capabilities in the next Commission term. While countries like France and Italy support increased defense spending, opposition from Germany and the Netherlands complicates efforts to secure consistent funding. Raik emphasized that addressing defense underinvestment will be pivotal in shaping the EU’s strategic autonomy, particularly for CEE countries on the frontline of tensions with Russia.

Q&A Highlights: Why representation matters
During the Q&A session, the panellists discussed why representation in EU institutions is essential, even within a supranational framework. Csaky argued that balanced representation fosters legitimacy and inclusivity, ensuring diverse perspectives shape policy decisions. Chiru highlighted the evolving strategies of CEE politicians, who are increasingly building networks within EU structures but still face challenges due to institutional inertia.

Raik offered Estonia as an example of how small states can exert influence by specializing in key areas like digitalization and forging coalitions. She underscored that representation alone is insufficient; proactive policy advocacy and coalition-building are necessary to secure influence. The discussion also touched on strategic autonomy, with Csaky suggesting that political developments may increasingly challenge traditional power centers like France and Germany. Raik added that defense against Russia remains a prerequisite for strategic autonomy in the Baltics and Poland, with EU support playing a critical role.

Conclusion
The seminar illuminated the complex interplay between representation and influence for CEE countries within the EU. While progress has been made in addressing historical underrepresentation, significant gaps remain, particularly in senior leadership roles and influential policy-making positions. The discussion underscored the importance of coalition-building, strategic prioritization, and proactive advocacy in translating representation into meaningful influence. As the EU navigates evolving challenges, the inclusion of CEE perspectives will be crucial in shaping a cohesive and resilient European Union.

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