León began by locating this transformation within a sequence of overlapping crises. The global financial crisis of 2008 and its aftermath brought deep economic hardship and austerity politics, culminating in the political upheaval of 2015. New parties such as Podemos and Ciudadanos entered the political arena, voter loyalties fragmented, and Spain's long-standing two-party dynamic gave way to a more competitive multiparty landscape. Electoral and parliamentary fragmentation increased sharply after 2015, and by the end of the decade Spain's party system had come to resemble those of many other European democracies rather than the "Spanish exception" of earlier decades. Using electoral data and fragmentation indices, León traced this evolution while showing how institutional politics adapted through more frequent elections, coalition governments and minority administrations.A central argument of the seminar concerned the emergence of Vox, the first durable radical-right parliamentary party in contemporary Spain. León argued that its origins differ from those of many comparable European parties. Rather than emerging primarily from cultural backlash or immigration politics, Vox's initial mobilisation was closely linked to the Catalan independence crisis. Territorial conflict became a powerful source of political mobilisation, normalising harder positions on national identity and creating space for a party that subsequently broadened its appeal. Longitudinal data show that ideological distance between Spain's parties has widened steadily since the late 1990s, reinforcing the broader process of political realignment that became increasingly visible after 2015.
León identified three interconnected forms of polarisation. The first is ideological polarisation, as citizens' policy preferences have diverged on issues including taxation and climate policy. The second is affective polarisation, reflected in increasingly negative attitudes towards supporters of opposing parties, greater social distance and a declining willingness to cooperate across partisan divides. The third is persistent political distrust. Public confidence in political institutions declined sharply after the 2008 crisis and has recovered only partially, leaving what León described as an enduring democratic vulnerability. These trends were illustrated through public opinion surveys, regional comparisons and experimental evidence showing that political opponents are significantly less willing to cooperate, both in Spain and in comparative international samples.
Two experimental studies demonstrated the practical implications of these developments. In a conjoint experiment examining preferences for crisis management, León found that Spaniards place greater trust in experts, volunteers and the security forces than in regional governments or, in some contexts, the European Union. A second experiment paired participants as co-partisans, politically neutral pairs or supporters of opposing parties. Cooperation declined most sharply among politically opposed pairs, suggesting that affective polarisation erodes basic social trust and weakens the capacity for collective action. León argued that these dynamics have important implications for responding to crises such as pandemics, floods and other emergencies, where effective policy depends upon public trust and broad social cooperation.
León was careful to emphasise that this transformation should not be understood simply as democratic decline. Spain's constitutional institutions have demonstrated considerable resilience, successfully navigating episodes including the Catalan crisis, votes of no confidence and changes of government. Yet these institutions now operate within a more fragmented and politically fragile environment. León suggested that this fragility becomes particularly problematic where policy choices involve significant distributive consequences—such as climate policy or the regulation of artificial intelligence—which require broad political consensus despite imposing uneven costs across society. She also highlighted evidence that younger cohorts are more likely to support Vox, suggesting that the new party system rests on durable intergenerational foundations rather than representing a temporary electoral realignment.
The discussion explored several of the seminar's broader implications. Asked whether Spain might eventually return to a stable two-party system, León was sceptical, arguing that current patterns of vote transfer, demographic change and the emergence of new political cleavages make such an outcome unlikely. Questions about democratic accountability prompted discussion of pandemic polling, which suggests that partisan loyalties increasingly shape citizens' assessments of political responsibility, complicating the retrospective judgements on which representative democracy depends. Audience members also raised questions about rural-urban divides, the continuing influence of the Catholic Church, and comparisons with countries such as Italy and Portugal. León emphasised that these developments should be understood through careful comparative analysis rather than single-cause explanations.
In closing, León struck a balanced note. Spanish democracy, she argued, is under strain but remains resilient. The past decade has produced a party system that is more responsive to new social demands, yet this responsiveness has come alongside greater fragmentation, stronger political polarisation and persistently low levels of institutional trust. By combining longitudinal survey data with experimental methods and comparative analysis, León's research demonstrates how structural changes in party competition reshape not only electoral politics but also the social foundations of democratic governance. Her seminar offered both a compelling account of Spain's political transformation and a broader reflection on the challenges that increasingly polarised democracies face in sustaining effective collective decision-making.
By Yangyang Zhao (Events Assistant)
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