Shifting Support: Western states, the UN, and local perceptions in conflict zones

At this seminar on 12 October, Stefano Costalli (University of Florence) presented joint research with Irene Costantini (University of Naples L’Orientale) and Valerio Vignoli (University of Siena) exploring how local communities perceive and evaluate international interventions in conflict settings. Drawing on a unique survey experiment conducted in Mali, the study sheds new light on the interplay between identity, effectiveness, and integrity in shaping local support for external actors such as the UN, Western powers, and non-Western states. Federica Genovese (St Antony’s College, Oxford) chaired the talk.

From peacekeeping to multipolar interventions
Costalli opened by situating the study in the broader evolution of peacekeeping and intervention research. Although UN peace operations have long been the cornerstone of international conflict management, no new UN missions have been launched since 2014 despite ongoing crises. Increasingly, non-UN actors—from regional organizations to individual states—have taken the lead in military interventions. Yet, much of the literature still analyses interventions from a supply-side perspective, focusing on the interveners rather than the societies affected by them.

The team’s project aims to reverse this imbalance by centring local perceptions and agency. Their approach moves beyond measuring peacekeeping “effectiveness” in terms of reduced violence, asking instead how affected communities perceive different interveners and what factors drive their willingness to support or reject them.

Ukraine and beyond: Shaping Europe’s security future

On 14 October, the European Studies Centre, in collaboration with the Dahrendorf Programme, started the term with a timely seminar on how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues to reshape Europe’s security landscape and the transatlantic alliance. The discussion brought together seasoned policy experts Jim O’Bryan and Olya Oliker to reflect on the ongoing conflict, shifting deterrence dynamics, and the prospects for Europe’s defence posture in a changing geopolitical environment. Dimitar Bechev chaired the seminar.

 
European security transformed
Olya Oliker opened the seminar by noting that Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine fundamentally transformed Europe’s security order. What was once considered a “settled” system has been replaced by continuing conflict and uncertainty.
Before 2022, perceptions of Russia varied: while the Baltic States and Poland saw Moscow as a potential aggressor, others considered it dangerous but manageable. Even the annexation of Crimea in 2014 did not fully change that view.

The 2022 invasion, she argued, shattered these assumptions. Russia demonstrated its willingness to use force despite immense costs, breaking prior commitments and underestimating both its adversaries and its own limitations. Deterrence now requires a higher threshold than previously imagined.