Russia's war against Ukraine: Consequences for South East Europe

On 3 December 2024, the European Studies Centre hosted a compelling seminar on the impact of Russia's ongoing war against Ukraine on Southeast Europe. The discussion featured a distinguished panel, including Julie Newton, Research Fellow at St Antony’s College, Oxford; Maxim Samorukov, Fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Centre; Kyril Drezov, Lecturer in Politics at Keele University; and Vuk Vuksanovic, Senior Researcher at the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy. The event was chaired by Othon Anastasakis, Director of the European Studies Centre and Southeast European Studies at the University of Oxford. The seminar delved into the far-reaching consequences of Russia's geopolitical strategies on energy security, political alliances, and regional stability in the Balkans and Southeast Europe.

Context
Julie Newton opened the seminar by contextualising Southeast Europe’s pivotal role in Russia’s broader confrontation with the West. She described the region as a "grey zone" in European security—a strategic area where external interventions by Russia and the West remain likely. This zone is crucial for Russia, as it seeks to weaken Western cohesion while maintaining influence through populist and illiberal allies in countries like Serbia and Hungary. At the same time, Southeast Europe presents challenges for the West, given its vulnerabilities in governance and susceptibility to societal frustration, which can fuel populism and external manipulation.

Newton identified Russia’s medium-term goals, including neutralising threats from Ukraine, reshaping European security to counter NATO, and shifting the global balance of power away from Western dominance toward a Russia-China-led alternative. Southeast Europe, she argued, will continue to serve as a key battleground in this broader geopolitical conflict.

The New Politics of Poland

On November 26, 2024, the European Studies Centre hosted Jarosław Kuisz, the editor-in-chief of Kultura Liberalna and an Assistant Professor at the University of Warsaw, to present his recent publication The New Politics of Poland. The seminar was chaired by Eli Gateva, Lecturer in International Relations at Oxford’s Department of Politics and International Relations.

Understanding post-traumatic sovereignty

At the heart of the seminar was the concept of post-traumatic sovereignty, introduced by Kuisz as a framework for understanding Poland’s historical and contemporary struggles with autonomy and identity. This concept reflects the lingering psychological impact of periods when Poland was denied statehood, such as during the partitions of Poland and its subjugation in World War II. These historical experiences continue to resonate today, particularly in the context of Poland’s role within the EU and broader geopolitical tensions, such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Kuisz underscored that sovereignty, while rooted in deep historical traditions, remains a modern and contentious political issue. Its interpretations are fiercely debated in Poland, where the trauma of partition and occupation has left a lasting imprint on collective memory. These historical experiences fuel anxieties about sovereignty and autonomy, shaping Poland’s political discourse.

Climate politics and public support for green transition in Europe

On November 19, the European Studies Centre hosted a seminar on "Climate Politics and Public Support for Green Transition in Europe." Chaired by Dr. Federica Genovese, Professor of Political Science at the Department of Politics and International Relations at the University of Oxford, the seminar featured Dr. Liam Beiser-McGrath, Assistant Professor in International Social and Public Policy at the London School of Economics. The discussion explored the complexities of transitioning Europe’s energy systems toward sustainability while navigating political and public support challenges, drawing on recent empirical evidence.

Dr. Beiser-McGrath opened the seminar by emphasizing that energy policies serve as a cornerstone of green transition efforts. He highlighted how government interventions aim to cushion the economic impacts of these policies. With the energy sector central to decarbonization narratives and fiscal sustainability concerns, he stressed the need for targeted policies to balance economic and environmental priorities.

A critical theme was the shift from universal to targeted financial transfers in renewable energy subsidies and efficiency improvements. Universal programs, while simpler to execute, may lack efficiency and face political resistance due to perceived inequities. Targeted policies, although potentially more effective, require nuanced public communication to prevent backlash, particularly among higher-income groups.

Turkey and the European Union – Moving beyond membership with external differentiated integration

On November 12, 2024, the European Studies Centre hosted a seminar featuring Meltem Müftüler-Baç, Dean of the Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences at Sabancı University, and Galip Dalay, senior consulting fellow at Chatham House and a doctoral researcher at St. Antony’s College, University of Oxford. Chaired by Dimitar Bechev, the seminar explored the historical evolution of Turkey-EU relations, efforts in political and economic integration, and the future prospects of alternative models to full EU membership.

Müftüler-Baç began by tracing Turkey’s engagement with the EU, which dates back to its 1959 application for associate membership in the European Economic Community and the 1963 Ankara Agreement. These milestones provided a legal basis for Turkey’s eligibility for membership, though not a guarantee. While Turkey officially opened accession negotiations in 2005, progress has stagnated due to political and economic concerns, including opposition from France and Germany. In 2019, the European Parliament formally called for suspending negotiations, citing democratic backsliding and concerns over the rule of law. Despite these challenges, Müftüler-Baç highlighted alternative pathways for Turkey to maintain strong ties with the EU, such as adopting frameworks akin to those of Norway, Iceland, or the United Kingdom. These models allow for economic integration without full political membership. Turkey’s foreign ministry described its ties with the EU as a "strategic partnership" in 2016-2017. However, this concept remains vaguely defined and lacks institutional clarity.

Rethinking Europe’s East-West divide: Who will lead the EU?

On November 5, the European Studies Centre (ESC) hosted a seminar discussing how Europe’s East-West divide has shaped the power dynamics within the EU, focusing on the representation and influence of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. The panel featured Zselyke Csaky (Centre for European Reform), Hussein Kassim (University of Warwick), Mihail Chiru (University of Oxford), and Krisi Raik (International Centre for Defence and Security). The session, chaired by Eli Gateva (Oxford DPIR), examined CEE representation within EU institutions, their influence in shaping EU policy, and the challenges they face in advancing their agendas.

Representation gaps in EU leadership
Zselyke Csaky began the seminar by highlighting the persistent underrepresentation of CEE countries in EU leadership. Despite accounting for 40% of EU member states and 23% of the population, CEE nationals held only 6% of top EU leadership roles in 2024, with no CEE citizens appointed to senior positions in 2023. Csaky pointed out that while Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has spotlighted the strategic importance of CEE countries, representation remains skewed in favor of older member states, particularly in influential positions.

Csaky noted that established networks within EU institutions often hinder CEE countries' integration. While the European Commission has a relatively balanced setup, influential positions still disproportionately go to nationals of older member states. Hungary remains an exception, wielding symbolic influence through Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, whose controversial policies have amplified Hungary’s visibility but may ultimately undermine broader CEE interests. Poland, despite its size and potential for regional leadership, faces limitations due to political instability and challenges in coalition-building.

Exploring the New Spirit of Islamism: Interactions Between the AKP, Ennahda, and the Muslim Brotherhood

On 15 October, 2024, Ezgi Basaran (St Antony’s College, Oxford, presented her latest book, The New Spirit of Islamism: Interactions between the AKP, Ennahda, and the Muslim Brotherhood, at a joint event hosted by Middle East Centre and the European Studies Centre at St Antony’s College, Oxford. As Michael Willis (St Antony’s College) noted in his introduction, the book evolved from her PhD research and offers a fresh perspective on Islamist movements. Ezgi’s background as a journalist uniquely equipped her to uncover the often hidden dynamics between these groups, which she examines through a blend of academic rigor and accessible storytelling.

Shifts in Turkey and its role on the global stage
Ezgi began her talk by reflecting on her time with the Contemporary Turkey Programme at South East European Studies at Oxford (SEESOX) nearly a decade ago, when there was still a glimmer of hope that Turkey might align itself more closely with Europe. However, the political landscape has shifted dramatically since then, both in Turkey and globally. As she pointed out, Turkey today finds itself at increasingly fraught crossroads between Europe and the Middle East, which mirrors the broader complexities of regional politics.

Unpacking Orientalism and Islamism
One of the central themes of Ezgi’s book is how Orientalism continues to shape Western attitudes toward the Middle East. She emphasized that the West’s selective outrage toward conflicts in the region reveals deeply ingrained biases. This ties directly into how Islamism is often framed—either as a failure or as an ideological threat. Her research challenges these simplistic narratives by showing that Islamist movements like Turkey's AKP (Justice and Development Party), Tunisia's Ennahda, and Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood are much more than ideological actors. They are political players operating within a neoliberal global order, seeking success and legitimacy in practical, not purely ideological, terms.

ESC Annual Lecture - Democracy of the last man: The politics of demographic imagination

The European Studies Centre (ESC) held its annual lecture on 4 June 2024. The lecture was titled “Democracy of the last man: The politics of demographic imagination.” It was delivered by Ivan Krastev, ESC Visiting Fellow, and chaired by Othon Anastasakis, ESC director.

Krastev’s lecture focused on the importance and influence of demography on contemporary politics. It sought to weave together demographic trends – low fertility rates and aging populations – with migratory flows, national identity, feelings of anxiety about the future the nation, and warfare. He outlined the traits of his ‘last man’. While Fukuyama’s ‘last man’ was satisfied but not ambitious, ‘married’ to democracy but not in love with it, Krastev’s ‘last man’ is full of anxieties and terrified that his nation is on the edge of extinction. He is the last European, the last white man – terrified of the extinction of the political power of his nation or race. Krastev characterised this as ‘demographic bulimia’ – an anxious feeling driven by the perception that they are simultaneously too many and too few people on a specific territory: too many of ‘them’ and too few of ‘us’.

The central argument of Krastev’s lecture was that demographic imagination is a new substitute for political ideology, and that demographic transition and democratic transition are closely interlinked. He substantiated his central argument by positing that: (1) demography and demographic imagination are key to understand the changes in both domestic and international politics; (2) while demographic change will affect both authoritarian and democratic regimes, at least initially it will have much more destabilising effect on democracies; (3) demographic changes and the need of migration that they bring put the focus on the rights of the majorities and as a result they expose the two conflicting notions of ‘the majority’ – the ethnic majority and the electoral majority; (4) while demographic anxiety fuels political support for the far right both in Eastern and the Western Europe, the fears in these geographical areas lead to two different types of illiberal regimes.