Russia's war against Ukraine: Consequences for South East Europe

On 3 December 2024, the European Studies Centre hosted a compelling seminar on the impact of Russia's ongoing war against Ukraine on Southeast Europe. The discussion featured a distinguished panel, including Julie Newton, Research Fellow at St Antony’s College, Oxford; Maxim Samorukov, Fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Centre; Kyril Drezov, Lecturer in Politics at Keele University; and Vuk Vuksanovic, Senior Researcher at the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy. The event was chaired by Othon Anastasakis, Director of the European Studies Centre and Southeast European Studies at the University of Oxford. The seminar delved into the far-reaching consequences of Russia's geopolitical strategies on energy security, political alliances, and regional stability in the Balkans and Southeast Europe.

Context
Julie Newton opened the seminar by contextualising Southeast Europe’s pivotal role in Russia’s broader confrontation with the West. She described the region as a "grey zone" in European security—a strategic area where external interventions by Russia and the West remain likely. This zone is crucial for Russia, as it seeks to weaken Western cohesion while maintaining influence through populist and illiberal allies in countries like Serbia and Hungary. At the same time, Southeast Europe presents challenges for the West, given its vulnerabilities in governance and susceptibility to societal frustration, which can fuel populism and external manipulation.

Newton identified Russia’s medium-term goals, including neutralising threats from Ukraine, reshaping European security to counter NATO, and shifting the global balance of power away from Western dominance toward a Russia-China-led alternative. Southeast Europe, she argued, will continue to serve as a key battleground in this broader geopolitical conflict.

The New Politics of Poland

On November 26, 2024, the European Studies Centre hosted Jarosław Kuisz, the editor-in-chief of Kultura Liberalna and an Assistant Professor at the University of Warsaw, to present his recent publication The New Politics of Poland. The seminar was chaired by Eli Gateva, Lecturer in International Relations at Oxford’s Department of Politics and International Relations.

Understanding post-traumatic sovereignty

At the heart of the seminar was the concept of post-traumatic sovereignty, introduced by Kuisz as a framework for understanding Poland’s historical and contemporary struggles with autonomy and identity. This concept reflects the lingering psychological impact of periods when Poland was denied statehood, such as during the partitions of Poland and its subjugation in World War II. These historical experiences continue to resonate today, particularly in the context of Poland’s role within the EU and broader geopolitical tensions, such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Kuisz underscored that sovereignty, while rooted in deep historical traditions, remains a modern and contentious political issue. Its interpretations are fiercely debated in Poland, where the trauma of partition and occupation has left a lasting imprint on collective memory. These historical experiences fuel anxieties about sovereignty and autonomy, shaping Poland’s political discourse.