What explains the enduring success of far-right parties in Europe?

Katja Salomo, Dahrendorf Postdoctoral Fellow at the European Studies Centre and postdoctoral researcher at the Social Science Centre Berlin (WZB), presented her preliminary findings on success of far-right parties in the European Studies Centre seminar organised on 20 February 2024. The seminar was chaired by Tim Vlandis, Associate Professor of Comparative Public Policy at the Department of Social Policy and Intervention, University of Oxford.

Salomo started her presentation by mentioning the broad social conditions that has given rise to extremism and anti-democratic politics, and then focused her discussion on the conditions that make far-right parties more successful.

Salomo had conducted a sensitivity analysis to examine the success of far-right parties in Europe by looking at 30 countries in the last two decades. She defines far-right parties as ultra-conservative and anti-migration political organisations. She traces their antecedents in the late 1970s / early 1980s. Furthermore, Salomo contends that far-right parties gained a bit more ground in the early 1990s, plateaued in the mid-1990s, slightly decreased during 2000-2005, and have been increasing in popularity ever since.

Concerning the reasons that explain the rise trend of far-right parties, Salomo argued that immigration has been a contributing factor after the 1980s. She also discussed briefly the role of mistrust at the individual and societal level, as well as social grievances and social status. These factors influence voting behaviour that is more favourable to far-right parties, according to Salomo.After a broad overview of long-term trends, Salomo focused on the findings of her analysis on the explanations of the far-right vote share in national elections in EU countries (expect for Malta), Switzerland, Norway, Iceland, and the United Kingdom during the period 2000-2021. She argued that the rise of the vote share of far-right parties has not necessarily been due to migration or differences in income levels, but due to public/social spending because differences in the vote share between countries are explained through the level of public spending.

But migration still matters in Salomo’s findings. Countries that had more migrants in the early 2000s, today they have less far-right parties. According to Salomo, if countries hosted a greater number of refugees in the early 2000s, today they have more far-right parties. If countries received higher than average immigration but their income is less than the average, they also have more far-right parties.

Furthermore, she noted that when far-right parties become successful there is a tendency for mainstream parties to emulate them and shift further to the right. This process creates a vicious cycle, whereby the exclusionary rhetoric by far-right parties leads mainstream parties to shift to the right and this in turn provides the necessary background to enable more exclusionary rhetoric.

The discussion that followed the presentation touched upon a variety of topics. The questions were related to the leadership nature of far-right parties, individual voter behaviour, the influence of the church on far-right parties, and Russian influence.

by Alban Dafa (ESC Research Assistant)