The region has become increasingly important as the European Union (EU) seeks to meet its energy demands after an almost complete ban on the import of Russian gas after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. At the same time, the instability of the region coupled with a multitude of global crisis – amongst others climate change, trade wars, US-China competition, and inflation – are making the Eastern Mediterranean an integral part of the geopolitical space that affects regional and global balance of power.
The seminar convened on 21 November is part of a larger effort at ESC/SEESOX to tackle these issues through a special project, which we are expecting to launch in March 2024. The speakers for this seminar included Alexander Clarkson (King’s College London), Costandinos Filis (American College in Athens), Manal Shahabi (St. Antony’s College, Oxford), and Galip Dalay (St. Antony’s College, Oxford). The seminar was chaired by ESC Director Othon Anastasakis.Clarkson discussed the EU’s approach to the neighbourhood and the Eastern Mediterranean more specifcally. He argued that EU enlargement has been a process of deperipheralisation by turning states considered “peripheral” geopolitically to become full players of the geopolitical “centre”. After Greece and Cyprus joined the EU, the Eastern Mediterranean became part of the EU’s widening system of the Single Market and the Schengen border system. Clarkson highlighted that within the Eastern Mediterranean region, the EU manages its relations differently. It has a Deep and Comprehensive Partnership with Tunisia and Türkyie, Association and Free Trade Agreements with Israel, and Neighbourhood, Development and International Cooperation Instruments (NDICIs) with Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, and the Palestinian Authority. Given the geographical breadth of the EU and the wide range of variables that can affect the stability of neighbouring states, the way that the EU deals with one neighbouring state affects its approach on how it deals with a similar issue with another neighbouring state in a different geographic area. Given these dynamics, the challenge of the EU’s engagement in the region is that the Eastern Mediterranean represents both a centre and a periphery.
Shahabi discussed the geoeconomics of the region and the importance of the region for energy connectivity between the EU and the Middle East. She argued that the Eastern Mediterranean became important with the discovery of gas in the Levantine basin. The discovery of gas has led to disputes of maritime borders amongst the countries in the region, which has impacted cooperation on gas exploration, refinement, and export. The reserves of the region are estimated at 7-8% of global gas reserves. Egypt has the lion’s share of the annual liquefied natural gas production, with Greece, Israel and Türkyie following at a much smaller production rate. A similar trend follows the annual production of “dry” natural gas. Shahabi argued that the discovery of offshore gas became an important source of income for the governments at a time of political instability (e.g. Egypt), while an inland country like Jordan has been interested in having access to the energy sources in the neighborhood. She further stressed that these regional developments are significantly important for Europe – not only concerning gas supplies but also the supply of electricity through undersea cables from Israel to Cyprus and Greece. Additional opportunities for energy diversification for the European market may arise as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and other Gulf states invest in hydrogen fuel production.
Filis discussed the position of Greece in the Eastern Mediterranean and regional dynamics in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. He first argued that migration challenges are a key concern in the region, and must be addressed in the context of the climate crisis and the ageing European population. Concerning Greek-Turkish relations, Filis argued that the two countries are showing restraint. While Türkyie has not been engaged in violations of Greek airspace or making negative references towards Greece, on the Greek side there is a moratorium on inflammatory statements on Türkyie. Furthermore, President Erdoğan and Prime Minister Mitsotakis have been meeting three times in the last five months as they pursue their “Positive Agenda”. The two countries are expected to reach an agreement also on the migration issue, which has rocked the relationships between them. The war in Ukraine has had a profound impact on regional geopolitics according to Filis. The war revealed that even the US’s close partners in the region decided to be neutral and not choose between Russia and the US. In addition to Russia’s military presence in the region, another factor contributing to this position is also the reliance on Russian grain. For example, Moscow and Cairo signed a bilateral trade agreement for grain in the wake of the war. Filis argued that these dynamics, together with the complacency of the Americans and Israelis to sideline the Palestinian issue, has brought in more uncertainties in the region.
Dalay discussed the position of Türkyie in the region and the changing parameters of regional security in the Eastern Mediterranean and the broader Middle East. He argued that the region had been going through a period of de-escalation and normalisation. The Abraham Accords and the convergence between Türkyie and Israel – particularly in the Caucuses – were important developments, which were related also to countering the Iranian influence in the region. The second reset was at the Eastern Mediterranean level between Türkyie and Greece. Türkyie has sought to de-escalate tensions with other regional actors and external players (e.g. the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Egypt) after Türkyie singed a memorandum of understanding in November 2019 with the Libyan Government of National Accord. According to Dalay, Türkyie was motivated to reduce the multilateral crisis between Türkyie and other regional countries to a bilateral one between Türkyie and Greece, which then led to a de-escalation in the bilateral relations between the two countries. Nevertheless, Dalay posits that the actors have decided to de-escalate without seeking to solve the key points of contention amongst themselves, but the failure of the East-Med pipeline project has been a key factor in reducing tensions in the region. He proposed that it would be important to include the Palestinian issue to exploit this moment of de-escalation and establish a stable regional cooperation framework. The future of the region, according to Dalay, depends also on great power competition mainly between the US and Russia and whether Türkyie-EU relationship will be pragmatic.
The question and answer session further explored the implications of green transition for the region, the Israel-Hamas war, Greek-Turkish relations, and the influence of great power politics.
by Alban Dafa (ESC Research Assistant)
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