Ladislav Charouz, St Antony's College -
On the 1st of November 2022, the European Studies Centre welcomed the return of two former affiliates of St Antony’s College. Charles Powell, director of the Elcano Royal Institute, delivered a presentation on Spain's situation after Covid-19, which was followed by a discussion with Dame Frances Lannon (Former Principal of Lady Margaret Hall). The event was chaired by Hartmut Mayer (St Peter’s College).
Powell began his talk by highlighting the financial challenges that Spain has faced in recent years, including the six-year, double-dip recession in 2008 and the Covid-19 pandemic. Although these crises exacerbated Spain’s weaknesses, Powell argued that Spain’s response has been better than one would expect.
Framing his discussion around "the good, the bad, and the ugly," Powell began with three aspects of "the good." Firstly, after the elections of 2015, Spain has become a stronger and more inclusive political system. While the share of votes between the two dominant parties, the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party and the People’s Party, trended around 80% in the past, this percentage has declined to percentages in the 50s. The greatest winners of this change have been Podemos, Ciudadanos, and Vox, who benefitted from the corruption scandals of the major parties and their poor handling of the 2008 financial crisis. Although the immediate aftermath was grave, with Spain holding four elections in the space of five years, the current government of Pedro Sánchez has proved remarkably stable.
Secondly, Spain had one of the most successful vaccine rollouts in Europe. The anti-vaxxer phenomenon was almost irrelevant in Spain, possibly due to the prestige of health professionals. While the economy has not yet recovered to pre-pandemic levels after contracting by 10% in 2020, the government is choosing to pursue an ambitious public spending programme.
Thirdly, after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Spain was affected by rising energy prices, even though it never depended heavily on Russian oil or gas. Russia’s war has pushed Spain to drop their row over a gas pipeline under the Pyrenees, agreeing instead on a connection between Barcelona and Marseilles. Spain has also managed to extract an “Iberian exception” with the EU, introducing a price cap on electricity production from gas. Furthermore, Spain can rely on multiple traditional strengths with a number of facilities that convert liquefied natural gas and a broad base in renewable energy production.
Proceeding to four cases of "the bad," Powell first explains the rise of poverty and inequality, including 10 million people in poverty, a 21% poverty rate, and an inequality rate that rose more in 2021 alone than in the previous 13 years. Secondly, there has been high unemployment. Unemployment is not only worse in the south than in the north, but it affects the youth disproportionately, with a 26% youth unemployment rate and the average age of home departure nearing 30 years. Moreover, the economic crises have fallen the hardest on workers with temporary contracts, who face more economic disadvantages than workers on permanent contracts.
Thirdly, Spain’s education system remains dysfunctional. It has the largest share of children who repeat the school year in the entire OECD – 11% as compared to the average of 2% – due to a shortage of teachers, a very traditional curriculum, and large classrooms. There is also a disconnect between the education system and the labour market, with 12% young adults enrolled in vocational schools versus the OECD average of 25%.
Fourthly, Spain faces acute demographic troubles. With the seventh highest life expectancy in Europe, 20% of Spaniards are over the age of 65. The fertility rate is far below the replacement level at 1.19, with the country seeing the fewest births since 1941. Central and rural Spain face depopulation, while reform of the pension system and the healthcare system is hotly debated. On the other hand, Spain’s low fertility rate shows its rising gender equality, which is reflected politically with 60% of the current cabinet being female. Furthermore, with 15% of the population born abroad, immigration is not a salient issue.
Finally, Powell discussed three cases of “the ugly.” Although the Catalan Crisis has subsided and support for independence is declining (especially among the young), the situation remains unstable and polarised. Tensions have been eased, however, with the pardoning of nine separatist leaders and the collapse of the separatist coalition in Barcelona. In the parliament, 10 political groupings represent 17 political parties, which reflect pluralism but also polarisation. The recent growth of far-left, far-right, and Catalan and Basque independence parties reflects cleavages along political and regional lines.
Secondly, the politicisation of the judicial system is a concerning development that has downgraded Spain’s democracy index from a “Full Democracy” to a “Flawed Democracy.” The two major parties have refused to review the judicial system, fearing changes in the Supreme and Constitutional Courts. Due to this impasse, the Constitutional Court has refused to rule on multiple issues, notably abortion. A further problem is King Juan Carlos’ abdication in 2014, which ensued with accusations of financial irregularities and undermined popular support for the monarchy. The king’s troubles have also cast a long shadow over his contribution to Spain’s democratisation, endangering consensus on the topic. Notwithstanding, his successor Felipe VI has so far delivered a solid performance as monarch.
Thirdly, Spain has had difficulty in dealing with its history of transitional justice. According to the 1977 Amnesty Law, no one can be held accountable for repression and human rights violations under the Franco Regime. Nevertheless, Spain has paid 20 billion Euros over the past 40 years to the regime’s victims and their families. Furthermore, Spain has passed two historical memory laws. While the Historical Memory Law of 2007 failed to fund the exhumation of Franco’s victims from unmarked graves, this issue was resolved by the historical memory law of 2022. The law also called for “resignifying” the Valley of the Fallen, where Franco was buried until his remains were removed in 2019. Both of these laws, however, have failed to attract broad political consensus.
Powell ended his talk with a cautious forecast of what lies ahead. Both the regional and general elections will take place in 2023, with the Popular Party ahead of the Socialist Party at the moment. Nevertheless, while the Popular Party may win the popular vote, it might be unable to form a majority government if Vox – the only major party likely to ally with it – performs poorly. In such a case, the Socialists may be able to cobble together another coalition. As regards the EU, repeated crises have slowed down Spain’s convergence with Europe’s leading economies. Spain may benefit more than most from EU successes, but it will also be disproportionately hurt by its failures.
In response, Lannon began with a personal reflection on her arrival at St Antony’s precisely 50 years ago to work with Raymond Carr, whom she called a towering figure in Latin American Studies. Lannon reminisced about Carr’s curious and fun personality, accomplished students, and the founding of the Iberian Centre at St Antony’s.
Lannon then discussed one external and one internal relationship: Spain’s relationship with the EU and NATO, and the relationship between its centre and autonomous communities. Despite sizeable public opposition to Spain’s joining NATO in 1982, its participation in NATO and the EU has largely been positive. The EU, of course, is not happy about the crisis over top-level judicial appointments, but, more fundamentally, it would like to see a more independent judicial process with less parliamentary control. This problem has not been eased by the fragmentation of Spanish politics and the country’s polarisation. As regards NATO, Spain risks delay with its goal of reaching the organisation’s 2% defence spending goal by 2029.
Internally, the central government has faced numerous disputes with autonomous communities including Catalonia and, unexpectedly, major cities like Madrid. During Covid-19, institutional fragmentation aggravated the initial failures of Spain’s response. There was no system to collate epidemiological data for the whole country and national procurement efforts were ineffective. Importantly, decisions about school closures were initially not coordinated, which meant that the infection spread from Madrid to the countryside at a rapid pace while much of populace fled the city to escape its early lockdown. While the vaccine rollout in 2021 was impressive, it is not easy to devise national systems, and extensions to lockdown continued to be contested.
